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While the CEPR Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee has been conceived to operate in a manner similar to the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, its deliberations and timing of announcements are independent. The Director of CEPR appoints new members after consultation with the Chair of the Business Cycle Dating Committee and the Research Director of CEPR.The President and the Research Director are ex officio members of the Committee.See Data Sources The financial press often states the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP.How does that relate to your recession dating procedure?For instance, 2011Q3 is a peak in the Euro-area as a whole, but not for Germany. A: The Committee meets when it feels that data developments warrant examining whether there has been a turnaround in economic activity.A detailed analysis of heterogeneity in individual countries' business cycles is included in the Committee's releases since its creation. Since October 2013, the Committee releases its findings – whether or not it has decided to date a trough or a peak.See, for instance, the October 2013 or June 2014 findings of the Committee.Findings Methodology Data sources FAQs The CEPR Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is composed of nine CEPR researchers, establishes the chronology of recessions and expansions of the eleven-original euro-area member countries plus Greece for 1970-1998, and of the entire euro area from 1999 onwards.
It’s more accurate to say that a recession — in the way we use the word — is a period of diminishing activity rather than diminished activity.
First, we do not identify economic activity solely with real GDP, but use a range of indicators, notably employment.
Second, we consider the depth of the decline in economic activity.
It is thus possible that the EU-area is in a recession while some of the individual countries are not, and that the business cycle dates differ for the Euro-area and for individual countries.
For instance, 2011Q3 is a peak in the Euro-area as a whole, but not for Germany.